CA: California Republicans meet in Burlingame to ponder their relevance

SACRAMENTO -- Less than two months into the new year, California Republicans are already reeling from a series of setbacks that reflects their sagging prospects.

As activists descend on the Bay Area this weekend for the state GOP's spring convention, the California Republican Party has been struck with a few hard realities:

The Republicans' registration numbers are down to an all-time low: 30.4 percent. They're almost broke. And Gov. Jerry Brown began the year announcing he would pursue a tax-hike initiative and dismissed Republicans as politically irrelevant, after pursuing them like a desperate suitor in 2010.

"Since they're out of power, the sole purpose of the Republican Party is to fight power," said Bill Whalen, a fellow at Stanford University's conservative Hoover Institution. "Their only rally cry has been to fight tax increases. But they can't just be the party that exists merely to fight the other side."

Whalen and other political analysts say that the state's GOP activists who will gather at a Burlingame hotel face hard choices, most of which revolve around one question: Should Republicans in an overwhelmingly blue state stick to their rigid principles or seek compromises with Democrats to make themselves relevant?

The state party's situation took a turn for the worse recently when the state Supreme Court refused to take up the GOP's lawsuit to block the citizen-drawn state Senate districts, which will be used in

November's election and likely result in a two-thirds Democratic majority in that house.

In addition, initiatives that Republicans had hoped to use to cut into the Democratic power base have fared poorly, victims of apathy among their would-be bankrollers. A big blow came when Republican backers of an initiative to curb pensions couldn't find funding to collect signatures.

Republicans have to increasingly rely on "angel" donors. As of Dec. 31, the state GOP had only $439,000 in the bank. The state Democratic Party had $9.3 million.

Another measure that never got off the ground would have repealed the law, signed by Brown last year, to move all initiatives to the fall ballot. That law took away one of the few advantages Republicans had in ideological battles: low-turnout spring primaries in which the electorate is generally more conservative.

An eye on June 5

Amid their dreary winter, California Republicans have had to watch the volatile GOP presidential primary campaign from the sidelines -- as Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul duke it out.

And California Republicans can't even get any luck in picking a keynote speaker for the convention.

When Republicans selected Gingrich several weeks ago, he was hot, the prime alternative to front-runner Romney. Now, the former U.S. House speaker, who will address delegates Saturday in Burlingame, appears headed to an also-ran spot in the GOP presidential primary sweepstakes.

Still, if the GOP nominating contest remains unsettled beyond the Michigan and Arizona primaries Tuesday, California's June 5 primary could begin to loom as a potential critical juncture, giving the state's Republicans a political boost -- and perhaps some clout -- that has been missing in their lives.

California Republicans "are hoping for a touch of relevance, and it would be one of their rare chances to matter in American politics" if the California primary has meaning, said Jack Pitney, a political science and government professor at Claremont McKenna College.

Despite the gloom, some GOP activists remain upbeat.

John McDowell, of San Carlos, for one, says he disagrees with all the pundits.

Fighting spirit

It's "clearly not true" that Republicans are irrelevant, McDowell said, pointing to Wednesday's move by legislative Republicans to introduce pension reform bills that mirror Brown's 12-point proposal as a counter to the conventional wisdom.

"It's a great thing; it means that Republicans are an integral part of what's going on in Sacramento," said McDowell, a precinct leader who plans on attending the convention as a nondelegate.

McDowell said he's leaning toward Gingrich, but said he could change his mind, especially if the nomination hasn't been decided by June.

"If it's unsettled and California can get to be an important vote," he said, "I'll be real excited."

Gingrich on his way

Dan Schnur, director of the University of Southern California's Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics, said the road to a brokered national convention in Tampa, Fla., leads right through the California primary.

"If Mitt Romney is not able to win Michigan next week, it's almost a certainty that we'll see a contested California primary in June," said Schnur, an ex-aide to former Gov. Pete Wilson. "And even if Romney does win, there's no guarantee the other candidates will go away between now and then."

Indeed, Gingrich -- known as a confrontational, polarizing figure -- might be the perfect tonic this weekend for cantankerous and conservative GOP activists. But the state party will only continue on its path to irrelevancy if it fails to broaden its reach to reflect the state's demographic shifts, resulting in more minority voters, said Melissa Michelson, a political-science professor at Menlo College in Atherton.

"The Republican Party can't compete if they choose someone who represents the narrow, right side of the party," Michelson said. "Even the radically conservative conventiongoers must see the writing on the wall and know they have to decide to what degree they need to be true to their core convictions and to what degree they need to moderate their political stances to political reality."

She said if Republicans pick Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, as their nominee, it would be a move toward moderation.

Deciding direction

Romney maintains a lead in California, according to a recent Field Poll, though Santorum surged to within 6 points -- 31 to 25 percent -- after being down by 20 percentage points a month ago, suggesting California Republicans are still considering an alternative to Romney.

One problem, the Hoover Institution's Whalen said, is that Republicans, down for so long in California, are in a fighting mood.

"The people who make up this Republican convention are scrappers. They want to fight," Whalen said. "They feel pushed around by the media and President (Barack) Obama. They want somebody to fight for their cause. Gingrich and Santorum tap into that, but Romney by his style and demeanor is not a very pugnacious guy."

Republicans gather in Bay Area

What: California GOP's spring convention
Where: Hyatt Regency San Francisco Airport hotel in Burlingame
When: Friday through Sunday
Speakers

7:30 p.m. Friday dinner: U.S. Rep. and House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy; U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa; Republican National Committee co-leader Sharon Day
Noon Saturday lunch: Presidential candidate and former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich

7:30 p.m. Saturday dinner: Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty

7:15 a.m. Sunday prayer breakfast: The Rev. Lou Sheldon, chairman of the Traditional Values Coalition

Source: http://feeds.stateline.org/~r/StatelineorgRss-California/~3/8NcyxthwSxc/ci_20033043

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